SUBJECT: Wx Update, E Caribbean, Thu23, 9am
SENT: 23-Mar-17 09:52

FORECAST:
ASCAT 10pm Wed22: Venezuela ENE-ESE@15-20 / MonaPsg ENE-ESE@7-13 / E DR Variable up to 20k in squalls

BUOYS: 60miSW of Nevis 110-120@12-14g18, 4'/10secN / SStJohn 110-120@12-14g18, 4'/6secESE / Ponce 030-180@5-10g14, 3'/6secSE / StLucia Airport 100-110@14-18

IMAGERY: Dissipating stray squalls Windwards-Leewards moving NW / Isolated-scattered squalls N of VIs moving N / Isolated-scattered squalls PR S Coast moving N / Isolated-scattered squalls/t-strms MonaPsg-W DR moving N-NE / Stray-isolated squalls ABCs-Venezuela NE


SYNOPSIS:

Models are in better agreement with the evolution of the TROF N of the region today. Strong cold FRONT moving into Bahamas today will push TROF axis to the E so it extends NE from DR-PR thru tonight. Winds generally remain S of E in the Windwards-Leewards thru tonight; areas W of PR (especially along the DR) build from the ENE as Bahamas FRONT leading edge weakens and allows strong winds to build everywhere. 

Diagonal TROF drifts W slightly Fri24 as it combines with the frontal TROF in the Bahamas. Little change in conditions from today, but SE Caribbean may back ENE-E. 

RIDGE in MidAtlantic US E Coast waters (N of frontal TROF) weakens Sat25, allowing TROF N of the region to continue drifting WNW-NW while restrengthening. S of E winds continue in the Leewards with closer to E winds in the Windwards. The DR moderates and becomes variable along with the MonaPsg as they lie S of the apex of the TROF. 

Weak upper TROF over the Bahamas (mentioned yesterday which helped initiate this entire setup) will begin to move into the CAtlantic Sun26 as other upper TROFS begin moving into the US E Coast. Surface TROF moves N-NE with it away from the Bahamas/ECaribbean. S of E winds continue in the Windwards-Leewards as LO lifts N (more S the further N you lie) while DR-PR remain light (possible light W wind). 

TROF has an increasing chance of becoming a LO which is now supported by almost all regular models and ensembles during this time frame. We give this LO <5% chance of becoming a tropical LO, but it is highly unlikely to have any adverse effects on any region other than CAtlantic regardless. 

Regardless of how strong LO becomes it will continue NE into CAtlantic Mon27. Stronger LO would block some gradient wind in the Windwards-Leewards, leading to lighter winds with little change to DR-PR. 

OUTLOOK:

Windwards-Leewards may remain light-mild and a bit variable Tue28-Wed29 if LO maintains strength as it moves further into CAtlantic. DR-PR likely see light-mild N component wind in flow between weak HI over SWAtlantic and LO. 

E trades likely to return as we approach Fri31-Sat1 as new RIDGE forms in SWAtlantic. 


SUGGEST:

N/S-Bound Waters N of Trinidad-Martinique: Moderate-brisk sailing thru tonight, slightly better for N-bound (see swells). Mild-moderate sailing Fri24-Sat25, slightly better for S-bound. Mild-moderate sailing Sun26 and mild travel Mon27, better for N-bound. 

N/S-Bound Dominica-Guadeloupe: Brisk<moderate N-bound sailing thru tonight (see swells). All sailing Fri24-Sat25. Moderate sailing Sun26, better for N-bound. Mild N-bound travel Mon27.

N/S-Bound Montserrat-Anguilla: N-bound sailing thru tonight with mild N-bound travel Fri24 (see swells). Mild-moderate N-bound sailing Sat25. Moderate N-bound sailing Sun26. Mon27 may be N-bound sailing<all motoring. 

E/W-Bound AnegadaPsg-VIs-E PR: Mild W-bound travel thru Fri24. Moderate W-bound sailing Sat25. W-bound sailing<motoring Sun26. Mon27 may be okay for all motoring. Lowest risk of squalls might be Fri24 and Sun26. 

MonaPsg: All motoring thru tonight. All motoring possible Fri24-Sat25, but may be difficult with squalls. Motoring with lower risk of squalls Sun26-Mon27. 

E DR: All motoring thru tonight, but may be difficult with squalls. Areas to the E of Samana likely motoring Fri24, but areas to the W better for W-bound sailing with squalls. Motoring Sat25 with some squalls, but better motoring in fewer squalls Sun26-Mon27.

W DR: W-bound motoring<sailing thru tonight, continuing Fri24-Sat25. All motoring Sun26. Possible all motoring or even light E-bound travel Mon27. Lowest risk of squalls Sun26-Mon27.


FORECAST:

PRECIP:

Waters N of Trinidad-Guadeloupe: Stray squalls to 25k thru Mon27, mostly evenings-mornings

Montserrat-Anguilla: Similar to Guadeloupe thru Fri24; Isolated squalls to 25k Sat25-Sun26, then similar to Guadeloupe Mon27

AnegadaPsg-VIs E PR: Isolated-scattered squalls to 25k thru overnight; Isolated squalls to 25k Fri24 (may be scattered near E PR-VIs); Isolated-scattered squalls to 25-30k Sat25; Stray squalls to 25-30k Sun26; Isolated squalls to 20-25k Mon27

MonaPsg-E DR: Isolated-scattered squalls/t-strms to 25k thru overnight, 25-30k Fri24, 25k Sat25; Stray squalls to 20-25k Sun26-Mon27

W DR: Scattered squalls/t-strms to 25-35k thru Sat25

ABCs-Venezuela: Isolated squalls to 25-30k thru overnight; Isolated-scattered squalls/t-strms to 25-30k Fri24-Sat25 morning; Stray squalls to 20-25k Sat25 afternoon-Mon27, mostly evenings-mornings


WIND (for wind near squalls see PRECIP):

Waters N of Trinidad-StVincent: 100<080@14-18g23k/4-6' thru overnight; 070-080@14-18g23/4-6' Fri24; 080-090@13-17g22/4-5' Sat25; 100-110@12-16g21/3-5' Sun26; 110-120@12-16g21/3-5' Mon27

StLucia-Martinique: 100@16-20g26<13-17g22k/5-7'<4-5' thru early afternoon; 100<080-090@13-17g22k/4-5' late afternoon-overnight; 080-090@13-17g22/4-5' Fri24; 080-090@16-20g26<11-15g19k/5-7'<3-4' Sat25 morning-afternoon; 080-090@11-15g19<100-110@14-18g23k/3-4'<4-6' Sat25 evening-overnight; 100-110@14-18g23<110-130@11-15g19k/4-6'<3-4' Sun26; 110-130@10-14g18/3-4' Mon27

Dominica-Guadeloupe: 100-110@16-20g26<090-100@11-15g19k/5-7'<3-4' thru overnight; 080-100@10-14g18/3-4' Fri24 morning-afternoon; 090@10-14g18<15-19g24k/3-4'<5-7' Fri24 evening-overnight; 080-100@15-19g24<10-14g18k/5-7'<3-4' Sat25 morning-afternoon; 080-090@10-14g18<100-110@14-18g23k/3-4'<4-6' Sat25 evening-overnight; 100-120@13-17g22/4-5' Sun26; 120-140@10-14g18/3-4' Mon27

Montserrat-Anguilla: 120-140@15-20g26<100-110@11-15g19k/5-7'<3-4' thru overnight; 090-110@11-15g19/3-4' Fri24; 100-110@13-17g22<090-100@10-14g18k/4-5'<3-4' Sat25 morning-afternoon; 090-100@10-14g18<110-130@10-18g23k/3-4'<3-5' Sat25 evening-overnight; 120-130@10-18g23/3-5' Sun26; 120-150@10-18g23<L&V/3-5'<1-3' Mon27

AnegadaPsg-VIs-E PR: 120-130@10-14g18<100-120@5-10k/3-4'<1-3' thru overnight; 100-130@10-14g18<6-11k/3-4'<1-3' Fri24 morning-late afternoon; 100-130@6-11<110-120@13-17g22/1-3'<4-5' Fri24 evening-Sat25 morning; 110-120@13-17g22/4-5' Sat25 afternoon-overnight; 110-120@13-17g22<130-140@8-13k/4-5'<2-3' Sun26 morning-late afternoon; 130-140@8-13<L&V/2-3'<1-2' Sun26 evening-Mon27

PR S Coast: NE-SE@5-10/1-3' thru overnight; NE-SE@6-12/1-3 Fri24; L&V/1-2' Sat25-Mon27

MonaPsg (along route from Mayaguez-NE DR): Variable up to 12k/1-3' thru Fri24; SE@10-15g19<S-SW@5-10k/3-4'<1-3' Sat25; SE-SW@5-10/1-3' Sun26; L&V/1-2' Mon27

E DR: Variable up to 12k/1-3' thru overnight; W of Samana NE-E@10-18g23/3-5' / E of Samana Variable up to 12k/1-3' Fri24; Variable up to 12k/1-3' Sat25-Sun26; L&V/1-2' or WNW-NW@5-10/1-3' Mon27

W DR: N-NE@5-10<NE-ENE@15-20g26k/1-3'<5-7' thru overnight; NE-ENE@15-20g26/5-7' Fri24; ENE-ESE@10-16g21/3-5' Sat25; L&V/1-2' Sun26; L&V/1-2' or NW-N@5-10/1-3' Mon27

ABCs: ENE-ESE@14-18g23/4-6' thru Fri24; ENE-ESE@14-18g23<10-14g18k/4-6'<3-4' Sat25; ENE-ESE@7-13/2-3' Sun26-Mon27

Venezuela: ENE-ESE@15-20g26/5-7' thru overnight; ENE-E<NE@12-17g22k/3-5' Fri24; ENE@11-16g21/3-5' Sat25; ENE-ESE@12-17g22/3-5' Sun26; ENE-ESE@8-17g22/2-5' Mon27... lightest afternoons


SWELLS:

SE Caribbean: 6-8'/9-10secNE-ENE<5-7'/8-9secENE thru overnight; 5-7'/8-9secENE Fri24-Sat25 afternoon; 5-7'/8-9secENE<6-8'/9-10secNE Sat25 evening-overnight; 6-8'/9-10secNE<5-7' Sun26; 5-7'/9secNE<8-9secENE Mon27

NE Caribbean: 5-7'/10-11secN<8-9sec thru overnight; 5-7'/8-9secENE<4-6' Fri24 morning-evening; 4-6'/8-9secENE<8-10'/10secN-NNE Fri24 overnight-Sat25 morning; 8-10'/10secNNE Sat25 afternoon-overnight; 8-10'/10secNNE<5'/8secENE Sun26-Mon27

VIs (areas exposed to ocean swell): 1' less than NE Caribbean

DR: 4-6'/10secN-NNE<8-9secNNE thru Fri24 morning; 4-6'/8-9secNNE<9-12'/10secN-NNE Fri24 afternoon-overnight; 9-12'/10secN-NNE<7-9'/10secNNE-NE Sat25; 7-9'/10secNNE-NE<5-7'/9-10secNE Sun26; 5-7'/8-9secNE Mon27

ABCs-Venezuela: 4-5'/9-10secN-NNE Sat25 evening-Sun26; 4-5'/8-9secNE Mon27... mostly winds waves other times


Kenyon Gladu - kenyon@mwxc.com